March 2021 global hydrogen summary

Compiled 01/04/2021

In Europe, EUA futures are having a significant impact on the cost effectiveness of blue hydrogen, making it the much more attractive choice despite a greater capex outlay. Additionally, changing price differentials in The Netherlands and Germany emphasise the importance of keeping a close eye on hydrogen production cost movements.

In North America, the huge volatility that characterised February has subsided. Costs in Alberta have returned mostly to early January levels and Texas & California energy prices have stabilised.

UK

UK power and natural gas prices reversed February's declines to gain over 10% throughout March. Hydrogen costs across the board are approaching late 2020's highs.

EUA futures have surged since the new year, gaining almost 30%. Blue hydrogen can now be cheaper to produce than grey, even when accounting for significantly higher capex.

Germany

German energy prices rose quite consistently throughout March. Hydrogen costs have now largely recovered to January's levels with green hydrogen lifted further by a spike at the end of the month.

The Netherlands

Dutch blue and grey hydrogen continue to undercut Germany as Dutch TTF futures remain lower than German NCG futures. Green hydrogen joins them as electricity prices fail to benefit from the same volatility seen across the border.

Texas

After February's volatility due to plummeting temperatures, Texas energy prices returned to more normal levels in March with relatively subdued price movements. This was reflected in more stable hydrogen costs across the board.

California

Power prices were little changed, with a short episode of volatility in the middle of March, with hydrogen costs remaining mostly stable.

Alberta

The grey hydrogen benchmark fell slightly with a lower cost of natural gas in January.

Green hydrogen benchmarks crashed by more than 50% as dramatic increases in power prices over Winter began to subside. After reaching more than c$10/kg at its peak, green hydrogen costs have returned to below c$5/kg.


Cost assessment figures have been redacted.

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Information correct at time of writing.

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